You Can't Pick the Winners

Try it on

This week’s Future Here Now will focus on something we don’t want to admit — the fact that in a VUCA environment, our ability to predict winners goes out the window. That’s true, to some extent, on topics ranging from weather to football, but it’s especially true when the “winners” we’re trying to pick are technologies, or businesses, or entrepreneurs. We consistently over-estimate our knowledge, and under-estimate the unknowns.

That’s a problem for lots of people, but it’s especially a problem for those of us whose make decisions about the economic future of our communities — economic development incentives, zoning, real estate, etc. We place big bets on long odds, and far too often, our bets turn out to be misplaced.

---

Try it On

For this exercise, you’re going to pick a topic that you don’t know much about — cryptocurrency, minor league rugby, biochemistry, I don’t care what.